AP-CT--PWM-CT Area Forecast Discussion, CT
000
FXUS61 KGYX 151328 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO
MOVE IN...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. USED CURRENT RADAR AS A STARTING
POINT FOR POP...WHICH REDUCED CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF SHRA ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS REDEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR ARE ACROSS SERN
NH...WHERE LIKELY POP REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THUNDER
WILL REMAIN MENTIONED...AS INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO GENERATE
WITH LIMITED HEATING.
PREV DISC...
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. EXPECT SOME COMMUNITIES VISIBILITY TO BE DOWN TO A
HALF MILE AT TIMES...JUST ABOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AS WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIFT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO
EXPECT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
THEIR DEW POINTS.
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEA BREEZE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. AFTER
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.
WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS INTO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL SEE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF OF A SHOWER OR SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
MURKY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST INCREASES THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SUPPRESSES THE WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME SUN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS TO SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF STRATUS WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
OCEAN STRATUS WILL REFORM IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO DO THIS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 14Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:29AM EDT