AP-LE--BUF-NY Lake Erie Area Forecast Discussion, LE
000
FXUS61 KBUF 151334
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHERLY FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS AS UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS
WEAK LIFT. CLOUDS WILL THIN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S...EVEN UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
WITH JUST A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BY MID
SUMMER STANDARDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 70S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
SOME LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
WITH A DOWNSTREAM WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION PROVIDING
MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN ON FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN ADDED BOOST OF FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 80 ON THE HILLS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. THE DPVA REGIME AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL PROVIDE A
LITTLE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY VERY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN
FREE TIME AS WELL. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE AND ALSO SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER.
ON SATURDAY THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL BE EXITING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY STILL PRODUCE
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THIS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. ON SUNDAY LATEST 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND ANY LOCAL BOUNDARIES MAY
STILL ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A MORE NOTABLE
MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF
THESE MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS CREEP UPWARD TOWARDS +20C. IT WILL
ALSO BECOME VERY HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70F
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SHARP CLEARING LINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD
BE AN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CIGS...WITH CLEARING FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF FLIGHT REDUCTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030-042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:35AM EDT