AP-NJ--BGM-NJ NJ Area Forecast Discussion, NJ

000

FXUS61 KBGM 151511

AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1111 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD

SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ALONG

WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. DRY AND COOLER

WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OUR NEXT

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO LEAVE WITH DEPARTING UPPER LOW

THAT IS OPENING UP INTO A WAVE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL

REMAIN TRAPPED FOR A TIME UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE

INVERSION. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO BECOME CELLULAR INTO THE IS

AFTERNOON YET NOT FULLY ERADICATE UNTIL LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING

INTO THIS EVENING. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT

SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF NEW

REDEVELOPMENT AS THEY EXIT. SOME MODELS HAVE PARTS OF PIKE-

SULLIVAN COUNTIES RAMPING BACK INTO 80S FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY

WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.

GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...INCLUDING

SLIGHTLY FASTER ON LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS YET ALSO A TAD SLOWER ON

DECREASING OF CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

H5 LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS

MORNING AND PUSH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS

OCCURS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD

OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END OVER

MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BY MID MORNING WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER NE

PA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO

CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND

MOISTURE AND LIFT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER

THE NRN CWA BY MIDDAY, SOUTHERN TIER MID AFTERNOON AND FAR SE FA

TOWARD EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE UPPER

60S TO LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN SE PA UNDER

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT

WINDS MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL

RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY THURSDAY, SFC HI WILL BE

IN THE VCNTY BRINGING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL TEMPS,

MAXES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WON'T BE QUIET AS COLD AS TONIGHT DUE TO A FEW MID

LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE

LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO

EASTERN CANADA. AIRMASS WILL MODIFY ON FRIDAY AND WARM FRONT

ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH OF

REGION FOR AREA TO REMAIN DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S

TO MID 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

310 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LEFT MOSTLY UNCHANGED. WHILE WE HAVE CHANCES FOR

CONVECTION ALMOST EVERY DAY, BEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AND

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS BELOW...

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND MORE

HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR

THE LONG RANGE.

A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE

AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY

NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY

AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL HEATING. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT

BUT EARLY INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH

MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN

THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY

WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.

DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS

THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY

TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF THIS

FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY THOUGH STILL BRINGS IN A DISTURBANCE MONDAY

WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, CHANCES FOR

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND

TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MOST TERMINALS BEFORE AN

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IFR CIGS STILL

POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KELM/KITH/KBGM AND KAVP, BUT THIS MAY BE

HIGHLY VARIABLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT VALLEY

FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY KEEP IT A LATER

SHOW (AFTER 08Z). WITH A MOIST GROUND HOWEVER, IF THE WIND DROPS

OFF ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THE FOG COULD BE EARLIER AND

MORE RESTRICTIVE THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN LIGHT

NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 KTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...NONE.

NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RRM

NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM

SHORT TERM...RRM

LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF

AVIATION...HEDEN

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:12AM EDT