AP-NY--BGM-NY Central Area Forecast Discussion, NY
000
FXUS61 KBGM 151511
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO LEAVE WITH DEPARTING UPPER LOW
THAT IS OPENING UP INTO A WAVE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED FOR A TIME UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO BECOME CELLULAR INTO THE IS
AFTERNOON YET NOT FULLY ERADICATE UNTIL LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
INTO THIS EVENING. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF NEW
REDEVELOPMENT AS THEY EXIT. SOME MODELS HAVE PARTS OF PIKE-
SULLIVAN COUNTIES RAMPING BACK INTO 80S FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.
GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...INCLUDING
SLIGHTLY FASTER ON LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS YET ALSO A TAD SLOWER ON
DECREASING OF CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
MORNING AND PUSH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BY MID MORNING WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER NE
PA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LIFT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NRN CWA BY MIDDAY, SOUTHERN TIER MID AFTERNOON AND FAR SE FA
TOWARD EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN SE PA UNDER
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY THURSDAY, SFC HI WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY BRINGING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL TEMPS,
MAXES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WON'T BE QUIET AS COLD AS TONIGHT DUE TO A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. AIRMASS WILL MODIFY ON FRIDAY AND WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST AND NORTH OF
REGION FOR AREA TO REMAIN DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LEFT MOSTLY UNCHANGED. WHILE WE HAVE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALMOST EVERY DAY, BEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS BELOW...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE LONG RANGE.
A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE
AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL HEATING. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT
BUT EARLY INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH
MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF THIS
FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY THOUGH STILL BRINGS IN A DISTURBANCE MONDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MOST TERMINALS BEFORE AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IFR CIGS STILL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KELM/KITH/KBGM AND KAVP, BUT THIS MAY BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT BUT VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY KEEP IT A LATER
SHOW (AFTER 08Z). WITH A MOIST GROUND HOWEVER, IF THE WIND DROPS
OFF ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THE FOG COULD BE EARLIER AND
MORE RESTRICTIVE THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 KTS OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:12AM EDT