AP-NY--PWM-NY Area Forecast Discussion, NY

000

FXUS61 KGYX 151328 AAA

AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

928 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY...BRINGING

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN

MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE

OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO

MOVE IN...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS

ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. USED CURRENT RADAR AS A STARTING

POINT FOR POP...WHICH REDUCED CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE

AREA OUTSIDE OF SHRA ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HI-RES

CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS REDEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A NARROW

CORRIDOR OF HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR ARE ACROSS SERN

NH...WHERE LIKELY POP REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THUNDER

WILL REMAIN MENTIONED...AS INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO GENERATE

WITH LIMITED HEATING.

PREV DISC...

AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN AND

CENTRAL AREAS. EXPECT SOME COMMUNITIES VISIBILITY TO BE DOWN TO A

HALF MILE AT TIMES...JUST ABOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW

PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AS WINDS SWITCH TO

THE NORTHWEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIFT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED

SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME CAPE IN THE

FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE

FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S OVER

INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR

SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO

EXPECT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH

THEIR DEW POINTS.

MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES

TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF

THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEA BREEZE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COMFORTABLE

OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S

SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE

APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. AFTER

A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID

LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID

70S TO NEAR 80.

WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASINGLY

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS INTO MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW

CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS

THE REGION. WILL SEE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF OF A SHOWER OR SOME

LIGHT DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS

WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

MURKY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM

THE NORTHEAST INCREASES THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SUPPRESSES THE WARM

FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME SUN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES

IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS TO SEE

ANOTHER DAY OF STRATUS WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

OCEAN STRATUS WILL REFORM IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY

NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SLOW MOVING COLD

FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION ON

TUESDAY...BUT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO DO THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORT TERM...

FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS

MORNING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 14Z...WITH SCATTERED

SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...VFR

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS

DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA

CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON

THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...NONE.

NH...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:29AM EDT